Is Yogi Adityanath the X factor in Modi-Shah duopoly?

medium119901236It is widely assumed that Union home minister Amit Shah is the natural successor to Prime Minister Narendra Modi when the latter decides to step aside at some stage between 2029 and 2034.There are several complications in this theory. First, Modi has given no indication he will step aside — in 2029 or 2034. Second, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has to win the 2029 and 2034 Lok Sabha elections before the question of Modi stepping aside arises. In politics there are no guarantees.There is a third complication as well. If Amit Shah is the chosen successor to lead the BJP in future elections once Modi hands over the baton, what about Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath?According to a recent newsmagazine opinion poll, if Lok Sabha elections were held today, the BJP on its own would win 281 seats. The Congress would fall to 78 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win 343 seats and the INDIA bloc 188 seats. Adityanath emerged in the poll as India’s most popular chief minister (35%), ahead of second-placed West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee (11%).The next Lok Sabha election is four years away. That is an eternity in politics. Looking further to 2034 is even more futile. But the interplay between the three most prominent leaders of the country — Modi, Shah and Yogi — could have a major bearing on the future architecture of Indian politics.Modi has increasingly embraced the role of global statesman, seeking diplomacy and dialogue in Ukraine and Gaza, and travelling widely. In India, his Saugat-e-Modi initiative to mark Eid this week distributed food and clothes to 32 lakh poor Muslims across the country, coordinating the effort with over 32,000 mosques nationwide. medium119901261Is this the Vajpayee-ification of Modi? Or is it just an exercise in political arithmetic? The BJP’s Minority Morcha, which organised Saugat-e-Modi, aims to bring more Muslim voters into the BJP’s fold.The initiative is not new. Before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP made a concerted outreach to backward Pasmanda Muslims. The triple talaq ban was aimed at giving justice to Muslim women. Both initiatives helped the BJP win Muslim votes but not enough of them. Modi and the BJP remain deeply unpopular with the majority of Muslims.For Modi, however, even an incremental 1% gain in minority vote share counts in tightly fought elections. It made a difference in the Maharashtra and Delhi assembly polls.Meanwhile, Shah continues to play LK Advani to Modi’s Vajpayee. His tough stand on Naxal violence has borne fruit. Maoists are on the run in Chhattisgarh and elsewhere. The use of drone technology and aggressive counter-terror operations has decimated much of the Maoist leadership.Shah’s uncompromising position on Pakistan too has yielded results. Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir have reduced significantly.But does Shah have what it takes to be prime minister? His international exposure is limited. He rarely travels abroad. In contrast Modi, even when he was a junior BJP worker in the 1990s, made an effort to travel to China and the United States, interacting with foreign leaders and imbibing global statecraft.But Shah can’t be underestimated. He may lack Advani’s cosmopolitanism and Modi’s international outlook. However, as his increasingly frequent media interviews have shown, he has a firm grip on internal security and regional politics.Yogi X factorIn the aisles meanwhile waits Yogi Adityanath. His national stock surged following the successful execution of the 2025 Maha Kumbh in Prayagraj.Yogi has a curious relationship with Modi. The prime minister understands Yogi’s appeal across the Hindi heartland. With the 2027 UP assembly election due in less than two years, he needs Yogi to be at the top of his game.But Modi, and even more so Shah, are wary of Yogi’s growing pan-national popularity. It needs to be handled with care. Yogi has an independent following in his Gorakhpur Mutt. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has put its weight behind Yogi who rose, unlike Modi, without the Sangh’s support.Yogi suffered a loss of confidence following the BJP’s disastrous showing in UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, dropping to 33 seats from 62 seats in 2019.The fall was attributed to infighting in the BJP’s UP state unit. Yogi was kept out of the UP candidate selection process which was handled by the high command in Delhi. Most of those candidates lost.In the UP bypolls six months later, Yogi micro-managed candidate selection and personally handled state-wide campaigning. The BJP and its allies won seven out of nine bypoll seats, including the Kundarki seat in Moradabad where Muslims form 60% of the electorate and which the BJP had not won since 1993. medium119901291The RSS was quick to notice this. During the Sangh’s national meet in Mathura in October 2024, even as Yogi campaigned for the November bypolls across the state, RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale endorsed Yogi’s controversial slogan “batengey toh katengey” (divided we fall).Significantly, Modi used the same slogan while campaigning in Maharashtra for the state assembly election where the BJP won a landslide 132 seats on its own as part of the Mahayuti alliance.While Modi recognises Yogi’s importance in the 2027 UP assembly election which could set the tone for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls, Shah remains his natural heir. But Modi knows that winning 2029 requires team effort. In future a Shah-Yogi duopoly could emerge with Modi assuming the role of mentor after May 2034 when he turns 84.Yogi has been deliberately ambiguous about his ambition for the top job. He is careful to always defer to Modi.At a recent India Today Conclave, Yogi was asked about his role as a future national leader. Yogi replied: “I am not (anyone’s) successor. I am just a yogi. And I just want to work as a yogi.”Those could prove famous last words.Lead illustration: Uday DebRead more from the author here.